Hurricane Milton intensifies, heads toward Florida’s Gulf Coast

A quickly intensifying storm became Hurricane Milton on Sunday, less than a day after it developed in the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center predict the storm will make landfall on Florida’s west coast as a major hurricane this week.
The most likely path suggests Milton could make landfall Wednesday in or near the Tampa Bay area and remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida into the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters said. That would largely spare other southeastern states ravaged by Hurricane Helene, which caused catastrophic damage from Florida into the Appalachian mountains and killed more than 230 people. 
Milton was moving toward the Florida peninsula late on Sunday at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. While Milton will be a smaller storm than Helene, with a smaller wind field, it appears to be heading for a much more populated area, and storm surge will be worse in spots, according to CBS News weather senior producer David Parkinson.
South Florida communities were already feeling some of the storm’s early impacts, as Miami-Dade County and the Everglades reported flooding, said CBS News Miami meteorologist KC Sherman. Sherman told residents potentially in the path of the hurricane to expect a flood watch to take effect through Thursday.
“Milton is moving slowly but is expected to strengthen rapidly,” the hurricane center said earlier Sunday. “There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.”
A major hurricane is defined as a Category 3 storm or larger with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.  The latest forecasts Sunday suggested Milton would make landfall with 120 mph winds.
Milton will likely be a major hurricane by Monday evening, according to Parkinson. The storm is moving over water with temperatures hovering around 85 degrees Fahrenheit, which Parkinson describes as being like “premium octane fuel for any hurricane.”
Parkinson said the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center suggests a peak at Category 4 —with winds of 145 mph— and a landfall intensity of Category 3. 
“As always, this far out, people need to prepare for one category above, which means preparations should be for a Category 5 maximum, and a strong Category 4 landfall,” Parkinson said.
Forecast models show Milton headed for Florida’s west coast. The direction Milton approaches from is a large concern, Parkinson said. Instead of running parallel to the coast, Milton is coming in at a 90-degree angle. 
“That means that storm surge will be piled into the coast,” Parkinson said, comparing it to what happened in New Jersey during Hurricane Sandy.
The landfall location will be key, he explained. 
“If landfall is south of a given location, storm surge will be minimal, rain will be heavy, and any of the worst wind will be confined to the first 25 miles from the eye,” Parkinson said. “If landfall is north of a given location, they’ll experience catastrophic and historic storm surge, relatively minimal rain, and wind confined to the first 25 miles from the eye. Storm surge will extend southward of the landfall point for the entire west coast.”
Parkinson also explained the worst case scenario for Tampa Bay. 
“At least half the model runs to give a St. Pete or north landfall. I cannot think of a worse case scenario than that for Tampa Bay,” he said. “If that comes to fruition, it will be the worst natural disaster Tampa has ever seen. If, however, landfall occurs in Sarasota or south, Tampa will dodge the storm surge, but places like Fort Myers will bear the worst inundation.”
Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an emergency order on Saturday declaring a state of emergency in 35 Florida counties in preparation for possible landfall by Milton.
On Sunday, DeSantis said that while it remains to be seen just where Milton will strike, it’s clear that Florida is going to be hit hard — “I don’t think there’s any scenario where we don’t have major impacts at this point.”
“You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place,” the governor said. “Know your evacuation zone — there will be mandatory and voluntary evacuations.”
The St. Petersburg-Tampa Bay area is still cleaning up extensive damage from Helene and its powerful storm surge. Twelve people perished as Helene swamped the coast, with the worst damage along the narrow, 20-mile string of barrier islands that stretch from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.
All classes and school activities in St. Petersburg’s Pinellas County preemptively closed Monday through Wednesday as Milton approached, and Tampa opened city garages for free so people could park their cars safe from the next floodwaters.
The Pinellas County government also issued mandatory evacuation orders for long-term care facilities, assisted living facilities and hospitals in designated evacuation zones due to the threat posed by Hurricane Milton. 
“All available state assets … are being marshaled to help remove debris,” DeSantis said. “We’re going 24-7 … it’s all hands on deck.”
The Mexican government issued a hurricane watch from Celestun to Cabo Catoche, and a tropical storm warning from east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun. Hurricane and storm surge watches would likely be required for parts of Florida late Sunday, the hurricane center said.
Heavy rain is possible in the region starting Sunday into Monday, the hurricane center said, with more rain and heavy winds most likely arriving later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. The hurricane center said rainfall totals of 5 to 12 inches are possible across the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys from Milton.